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Outlook
The global economy is recovering, but
not on an even basis. Growth for the
advanced economies should be modest,
even in comparison to previous
experiences of recovery from recession.
The recovery in Italy in particular is
expected to be slow, with marked
uncertainty linked especially to the
trends of the international cycle and
labour market conditions.
In this context, following a 2009
characterised by a significant reduction
in income from advertising, market
estimates for 2010 are still rather
cautious, assuming a slightly positive
sign, indicating the end of the critical
phase. However, considering the high
level of uncertainty and volatility,
forecasts could change significantly.
According to the schedule for the
switchover to DTT, 2010 will be the
central year, in which the platform will
undergo most development and � in
line with the increased competition
between the platforms, the traditional
business models adopted by operators
will undergo an extensive review. 2010
will also be the year in which the
strategic positions of the main players in
the new competitive arena will be
defined.
Consequently 2010 will be a particular
important year for Rai.
The company has to reconcile two
opposing needs: to pursue the structural
recovery of the company's income
statement and strengthen its role on the
digital terrestrial platform, which is vital
to the Company's repositioning which
is, in turn, of essential importance to its
future. In terms of technological
investments alone, this project will use
up resources of almost 100 million
euros in 2010.
The economic forecasts for 2010 which,
like every other year, will have to bear
the cost of important international
sporting events, the Vancouver Winter
Olympics and the World Cup in South
Africa, with an impact somewhere in the
region of 120 million euros, show a
downtrend.
However, Rai has set up an articulated
corrective manoeuvre extended to all
areas of the company and the
subsidiaries, which will enable
significant reduction of the prospective
imbalance.
This manoeuvre includes the
continuation of important interventions
on operating management, with general
actions to improve efficiency and
rationalise costs, and the gradual
launch of action to downsize nonstrategic
activities for the Group's
prospective positioning.
However, due to the large amount of
costs which cannot be reduced and
also to operations carried out in 2008-
2009, actions to optimise expenditure,
with industrial and productive
arrangements that are almost constant,
may lead to improvements which do
not solve the problems of the income
statement.
So the handling of resources becomes
of the utmost importance.
Considering that it is impossible to
entrust the support of Rai's recovery and
development projects to a quick
recovery of the advertising market, the
rebalance has to rely on public
resources, which are structurally
insufficient compared to the costs
sustained by Rai for activities assigned
by Law to the Service Contract.
Once again in 2010, the per-unit
licence fee has been increased in line
with inflation. Consequently, in relation
to the effects on the year in progress,
positive results could derive from a
prompt review of the mechanisms to
contrast evasion which, as we all know,
are blatantly inadequate to cope with
the phenomenon which is pathological.
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