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Outlook

2012 is a year of recession for the Italian economy.

However, we can expect that the improvement in the European governance process, together with the reinforcement of financial stabilisation instruments on one hand and important manoeuvres to correct public accounts for 2012 – 2014 with the relative structural reforms, on the other, may lead to an albeit slow and gradual improvement in prospects.

The latest forecasts estimate a stabilisation of the productive activity from the second half of the year, and a return to a growth in revenue in 2013.
The macro-economic picture, characterised by considerable uncertainty and volatility, may have negative repercussions for Rai in terms of advertising revenues, confirmed by the market trend in the first quarter.

In a year influenced by the cost of big international sports events (London Olympics and the European Football Championships in Poland and the Ukraine, with the cost of broadcasting rights equating to 135 million euros) and activities connected to the completion of the switch-off process, or the final passage to DTT of the whole of Italy, Rai is committed to pursuing the consolidation of the economic progress made in 2011, with the aim of confirming – albeit in the presence of a strongly criticised context – the breakeven of accounts also in 2012.

The structural recovery of the economic and financial situation is the essential basis for enabling the relaunch of the Public Service and the development of Rai.

This fundamental aim will be pursued in observance of some essential priorities:
• requalification of the general-interest and specialised television offering;
• rethinking and relaunch of the Internet offering in order to reduce the distances with respect to other broadcasting operators active in the different competitive contexts;
• development of a publishing and business strategy for the presidia of the new Network Media Services market, also through partnerships with other players in the sector.

Consequently Rai has set up an in-depth spending review of all company divisions and of the subsidiaries, along with a further reinforcement of the spending rationalisation policies.

This logic comprises, as favoured by a review of the organisational structure and of the decision-making processes, important initiatives to rationalise the production models, aimed at achieving economic benefits and operational flexibility, with the most efficient use of in-house staff.

Once again in 2012, the per-unit licence fee has been increased in line with inflation.

Consequently, as in 2011 and considering the forecasts of the main financial institutions, not even the erosion of buying power can reasonably be recuperated.

In the absence, at the moment, of interventions to solve the problems relating to the collection of the ordinary licence fee, characterised by evasion of around 500 million euros, benefits are expected – although certainly not of comparable dimensions – from the recent law obliging companies and businesses to indicate the ID number of the special licence fee in their tax returns.

This is an important piece in the puzzle of the review of public financing of the Concession Holder, which is fundamental to the stability of the company’s recovery.